NATO Cohesion: The Threat Posed by ISIL
Technical Report,01 Aug 2018,30 Jun 2019
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth United States
Pagination or Media Count:
ISILs declaration of an Islamic Caliphate in June 2014 sent shockwaves through the international environment. A following trans-national terror campaign under ISILs black flag resulted in several countermeasures against the new geopolitical threat that have reduced the terror organization geographical control over its previous conquered terrain, and has forced ISIL to transition to an insurgency organization. The thesis addresses ISILs transition to the insurgency, and examine how the terror organizations strategy and current state may pose a threat to NATO within the next five years. First, the paper explains fundamental theories of terrorism and ISILs history, before analyzing ISILs strategy and ISILs capabilities to impose its strategy. Second, NATOs critical vulnerabilities are discussed through a Center of Gravity analysis. In the final phase, the thesis answers the research question by discussing if ISIL has the intention strategy and capability to exploit any of NATOs critical vulnerabilities.
- Unconventional Warfare
- Military Forces and Organizations