Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 CE
Journal Article - Open Access
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB WASHINGTON DC WASHINGTON United States
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Solar total and spectral irradiance are estimated from 850 to 1610 by regressing cosmogenic irradiance indices against the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record after 1610. The new estimates differ from those recommended for use in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project PMIP4 in the magnitude of multidecadal irradiance changes, spectral distribution of the changes, and amplitude and phasing of the 11-year activity cycle. The new estimates suggest that total solar irradiance increased 0.036 - 0.009 from the Maunder Minimum 1645-1715 to the Medieval Maximum 1100 to 1250, compared with 0.068 from the Maunder Minimum to the Modern Maximum 1950-2009. PMIP4s corresponding increases are 0.026 and 0.055 , respectively. Multidecadal irradiance changes in the new estimates are comparable in magnitude to the PMIP4 recommendations in the ultraviolet spectrum 100-400nm but somewhat larger at visible 400-700nm and near-infrared 700-1,000nm wavelengths the new estimates suggest increases from the Maunder Minimum to the Medieval Maximum of 0.17 - 0.04 , 0.030 - 0.008 , and 0.036 - 0.009 in the ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared spectral regions, respectively, compared with PMIP4 increases of 0.17 , 0.021 , and 0.016 . The uncertainties are 1 sigma estimates accruing from the statistical procedures that reconstruct irradiance in the Medieval Maximum relative to the Modern Maximum, not from the specification of Modern Maximum irradiances per se. In the new estimates, solar irradiance cycle amplitudes in the Medieval Maximum are comparable to those in the Modern Maximum, whereas in the PMIP4 reconstruction they are at times almost a factor of 2 larger at some wavelengths and differ also in phase.