Forecasting Attrition by AFSC for the United States Air Force
Technical Report,01 Sep 2018,01 Mar 2020
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States
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Retention is a challenge for every organization, particularly the military due to its hierarchical structure and barriers to entry. Talent must be grown, retained and developed to become leaders. The Air Force faces a unique retention problem with that requires a unique perspective and tailored solution to each Air Force Specialty Code. There exists previous efforts to predict attrition rates in the Air Force based on economic factors. This study expands upon the economic factors and tailors the predictor variables of attrition based on the AFSC hypothesizing that AFSC attrition relates to comparable civilian jobs and their employment. The methodology identifies the key factors influencing attrition, creates forecasts for the variables, and reintroduces the forecasts of the variables into the original regression to provide forecasts of expected attrition along with confidence regions. This study finds that seven of the eight AFSCs show a relationship with comparable employment in the civilian sector. More insights show that AFSCs have different predictor variables and should be modelled separately to capture the trends for each specific AFSC.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Military Forces and Organizations