The Utility of Self-Assessment in Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy
Technical Report,01 Sep 2019,26 Mar 2020
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States
Pagination or Media Count:
The ability of the Program Offices to provide accurate cost estimates is an essential element in planning and programming. Historically, cost estimating has led to budget overruns and continues to be an area of scrutiny and concern. A series of legislative reforms have sought to address each of these perceived underlying causes which are located at all levels of decision making from the SPO to CADE. The current study is specifically interested in determining how well SPOs are doing. There have not been comprehensive studies on SPO performance. In large part, this deficiency is due to the inability to systematically assess the SPOs. However, a new consolidation of data by AFLCMC has recently made it possible to do such a study. The AFLCMCs program office estimates in this study will look at the SPOs of AFLCMC and evaluate their cost estimates for growth and also determine if their established method of self-assessment provides a predictor of the overall future accuracy of the program estimate.
- Administration and Management
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies