Vote Forecasting through Multi-Objective Decision Analysis: The United States-Mexico Border Dispute
Technical Report,01 Sep 2018,26 Mar 2020
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States
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In December 2018, the U.S. Government began the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. These shutdowns occur after government departments submit budget requests and the legislature is unable to pass an appropriations bill. There is no clear solution to this problem. This study hypothesizes that government departments could benefit from considering the political viability of their budget requests prior to submitting them to Congress. In the field of decision analysis, no prior research was found for assessing the political viability of alternatives. This work theorizes and tests a novel methodology for vote forecasting using the results of a multi-objective decision analysis and comparing alternatives against the status quo. A model scenario is set forth of Customs and Border Protection submitting a funding request for technologies to secure the United States-Mexico border. The request is sent to a voting body of 20 decision makers from 2 political parties. A total of 20 alternatives are assessed according to the individual preferences of 20 decision makers and votes are forecasted using the results. The experiment made a clear distinction between alternatives with varying levels of political viability. The study contributes a repeatable methodology that can be used for future research in real-life scenarios.
- Statistics and Probability
- Government and Political Science