Accession Number:

AD1100300

Title:

Status and Future of Numerical Atmospheric Aerosol Prediction with a Focus on Data Requirements

Descriptive Note:

Journal Article - Open Access

Corporate Author:

NAVAL RESEARCH LAB WASHINGTON DC WASHINGTON United States

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2018-07-25

Pagination or Media Count:

29.0

Abstract:

Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centers. This development is due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation and military authorities, solar energy plant managers, climate services providers, and health professionals. Owing to the complexity of atmospheric aerosol processes and their sensitivity to the underlying meteorological conditions, the prediction of aerosol particle concentrations and properties in the numerical weather prediction NWP framework faces a number of challenges. The modeling of numerous aerosol-related parameters increases computational expense. Errors in aerosol prediction concern all processes involved in the aerosol life cycle including a errors on the source terms for both anthropogenic and natural emissions, b errors directly dependent on the meteorology e.g., mixing, transport, scavenging by precipitation, and c errors related to aerosol chemistry e.g., nucleation, gas-aerosol partitioning, chemical transformation and growth, hygroscopicity. Finally, there are fundamental uncertainties and significant processing overhead in the diverse observations used for verification and assimilation within these systems. Indeed, a significant component of aerosol forecast development consists in streamlining aerosol-related observations and reducing the most important errors through model development and data assimilation

Subject Categories:

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE