An Evaluation of COAMPS-TC Real-Time Forecasts for Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016)
Journal Article - Open Access
NAVAL RESEARCH LAB WASHINGTON DC WASHINGTON United States
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Typhoon Nepartak was a category 5 tropical cyclone in 2016 that resulted in significant societal impacts. The tropical cyclone went through a rapid intensification RI, with an increase of maximum wind speed of 51 m s-1 and a decrease of minimum sea level pressure of 74 hPa in 42 h. The real-time forecast from the U.S. Navy Coupled OceanAtmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone COAMPS-TC, initialized at 1200 UTC 3 July, predicted the track and intensity reasonably well for Super Typhoon Nepartak and captured the storms RI process. Positive interactions among primary and secondary circulations, surface enthalpy fluxes, and mid-level convective heating are demonstrated to be critical for the RI. The storm structure variations seen from the simulated satellite infrared brightness temperature during RI bear considerable resemblance to the Himawari-8 satellite images, although the forecast inner core is too broad, presumably due to the relatively coarse resolution 5 km used for the real-time forecasts at the time.