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Regime Collapse in Syria: Expectations and Implications

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Technical Report

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Joint Staff DDGO Washington DC United States

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At present, collapse of the Assad regime in Syria is generally considered to be a remote possibility for three reasons the Syrian governments consolidation of power, a fragmented opposition, and the resolve of international actors who are strongly committed to the survival of the regime. The 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment authored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence noted that the Assad regime held momentum and was supported by Iran and Russia as it continued consolidating territorial gains Coats, 2019. Furthermore, an October 2019 study estimated that the Assad regime holds control over 60 percent of Syria, though its control outside Damascus is tenuous Syria Study Group, 2019. Since that time, the regime has embarked on a campaign against rebel forces in Idlib, which only recently ended in a ceasefire Al Jazeera, 2020.

Subject Categories:

  • Government and Political Science

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