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Factors Influencing Timelines on Non-Competitive Acquisitions Greater than $500 Million

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Technical Report

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Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States

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The purpose of our research is to develop a procurement administrative lead time PALT prediction model for sole-source contract awards greater than 500 million at Air Force Life Cycle Management Center. The scope of our research is confined to PALT, which is the number of days between solicitation release and contract award. Our research team uses an ordinary least squares regression to model the relationship among our response variable, PALT, and 12 explanatory variables. Based on our results, we found five statistically significant variables and their effectssign and magnitudeon PALT. The model accounts for 90.05 of the variation in PALT. Accurately predicting a schedule provides commanders and decision-makers with the ability to make better strategic business decisions to support the warfighter. Further research recommendations include externally validating our prediction model against other populations testing variables excluded from this research, such as human factors and technological risk and estimating individual phases within the contract award process.

Subject Categories:

  • Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
  • Statistics and Probability

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