Uncertainty and Error in Combat Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis
Technical Report,01 Apr 2015,19 Dec 2019
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States
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Due to the infrequent and competitive nature of combat, several challenges present themselves when developing a predictive simulation. First, there is limited data with which to validate such analysis tools. Secondly, there are many aspects of combat modeling that are highly uncertain and not knowable. This research develops a comprehensive set of techniques for the treatment of uncertainty and error in combat modeling and simulation analysis. First, Evidence Theory is demonstrated as a framework for representing epistemic uncertainty in combat modeling output. Next, a novel method for sensitivity analysis of uncertainty in Evidence Theory is developed. This sensitivity analysis method generates marginal cumulative plausibility functions CPFs and cumulative belief functions CBFs and prioritizes the contribution of each factor by the Wasserstein distance also known as the Kantorovich or Earth Movers distance between the CBF and CPF. Using this method, a rank ordering of the simulation input factors can be produced with respect to uncertainty. Lastly, a procedure for prioritizing the impact of modeling choices on simulation output uncertainty in settings where multiple models are employed is developed. This analysis provides insight into the overall sensitivities of the system with respect to multiple modeling choices.
- Statistics and Probability