Evaluating Future Trends in Support of the Air Force Strategic Environment Assessment: Discussion and Results from a Structured Workshop
RAND PROJECT AIR FORCE ARLINGTON VA ARLINGTON United States
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The USAF asked RAND for help in identifying plausible futures based on each of these trends. First, a RAND expert with expertise in each of the selected key trends did a brief assessment of that specific trend area. For each trend, we then developed a set of plausible alternate futures in an effort to bound the problem and explore the possibilities. Figure S.1 shows the identified plausible futures for each trend area. Based on this initial set of work for each of the trend areas, we then convened a structured exercise to evaluate those trends in the development of plausible futures and developed future worlds that combine the different key trend futures to provide a variety of plausible futures that USAF can use to inform scenario development. The research focused on likely direction and plausible progress during the 30-year time frame in an effort to bound plausible futures. The workshop was a two-day event during which the RAND trend experts 1 presented their trend assessments and plausible futures 2 conducted a cross-consistency analysis to look for any combinations of futures that they felt would be inconsistent with each other 3 identified interesting pairings of futures and 4 developed future worlds using different combinations of trend futures. The purpose of the workshop was to create a set of future worlds that represented diverse contexts and potential challenges for USAF to consider. The outputs from the workshop included plausible futures for each trend and descriptions of the different future worlds.
- Government and Political Science
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics