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Quantifying Uncertainties in Parameterizations of Strength Models of Rolled Homogeneous Armor: Part 1, Overview

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Technical Report,01 Oct 2017,30 Sep 2019

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CCDC Army Research Laboratory Aberdeen Proving Ground United States

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Guidance is provided on how to obtain uncertainties in parameters of material strength models of rolled homogeneous armor,along with point estimates for those parameters, using existing software tools to implement two different approaches Bayesianregression and the interval predictor model IPM approach. This report shows how to mathematically describe a Bayesianmodel associated with a material strength model and related experimental data, and how to express this Bayesian model in formsthat the aforementioned tools can process. It also describes how the IPM approach can be implemented in Python. The reportshows how the model parameter uncertainties can be visualized and how they may be presented in a form suitable for input tosoftware tools for uncertainty propagation analysis, such as Dakota. Finally, the report shows how Bayesian analysis may beused to evaluate the quality of the fit of a strength model to experimental data.

Subject Categories:

  • Numerical Mathematics
  • Computer Programming and Software
  • Mechanics

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