Channel Missions: Forecasting Sustainment Cargo Requirements
Technical Report,01 May 2018,30 Jun 2019
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States
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The Department of Defense DoD relies on commercial air carriers as members of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet and to move cargo during peacetime operations. This research focuses on examining potential forecasting models for sustainment cargo in the Pacific area of responsibility. All four models provide viable weekly, monthly, and quarterly forecasts for the GATES cargo examined. The models developed include regression, ARIMA, Seasonal Exponential Smoothing, and Winters Method models. The models were compared based on goodness of fit measures. Then models were applied to a set of data that was withheld to determine how each performed compared to actual data. The models all provide reasonable forecasts. Overall, the monthly models are the best option because they provide relatively accurate forecasts and flexibility when applied.
- Transport Aircraft
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics