Accession Number:

AD1079714

Title:

Time Series Forecasting of Tanker Training Demand

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report,01 May 2018,30 Jun 2019

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States

Personal Author(s):

• Hawkins,Steven R.

Report Date:

2019-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

135.0

Abstract:

Since 1998 the USAF tanker fleet has decreased by 155 aircraft, with the additional anticipated retirement of the equivalent of 201 KC-135 tankers by 2029. Meanwhile, the new KC-46A is scheduled to replace only 179 boom-equipped tankers by 2029, resulting in a total decrease of 131 aircraft which corresponds to a reduction of 24.5 percent in total air refueling fuel capacity in just over three decades. This research examines historical tanker training requests, drawn from the 618th AOCs Air Refueling Scheduling Tool ARST, and uses multiple forecasting techniques, including autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA models, in order to create a model for predicting future air refueling training demand and communicating that demand in terms of aircraft flight hours. Air refueling remains a supply and demand problem in which there will always be more demand than the ability to supply with any realistically sized tanker fleet. The ability to understand, predict, and prepare for increased air refueling demand holds real value to planners, tanker units, and receiver units. This research is a first step in more clearly understanding unsupported air refueling training demand in terms of tanker aircraft flight hours.

Descriptors:

• time series analysis
• refueling in flight
• tanker aircraft
• air force aircraft
• air force training
• air force personnel
• air force planning
• predictions
• air force research
• air force operations

Subject Categories:

• Military Aircraft Operations
• Transport Aircraft

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE