Accession Number:

AD1079585

Title:

The Modeling of Essential Services, Security, Economics, and Employment

Descriptive Note:

[Technical Report, Final Report]

Corporate Author:

CENTER FOR ARMY ANALYSIS FORT BELVOIR VA

Personal Author(s):

• Shilling, Adam
• Appel, Robert

Report Date:

2013-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

90

Abstract:

Outcomes of irregular warfare IW are dependent upon the support of the people for their government. Effective representations of IW environments should model peoples support for their government, yet models of support, backed by quantifiable data are rare. Modeling Essential Services, Security, Economics, and Employment MESSEE uses survey data from Iraq and Afghanistan to estimate the relationships between peoples perceptions of the government and their decisions to support their government, which can help prioritize non-lethal counterinsurgency efforts and expenditures. Moreover, the estimated support equation, in turn, permits accurate estimation of a social rate of support for the government, that can be used as an input to other modeling efforts, and which is a critical measure of effectiveness MOE itself.

Descriptors:

• warfare
• asymmetric warfare
• governments
• social sciences
• ethnic groups
• security
• counterinsurgency
• economics
• employment
• international security
• afghanistan
• descriptive analytics
• environment
• equations
• operations research
• perception
• statistics
• training
• department of defense
• military operations

Subject Categories:

• Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
• Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement:

[A, Approved For Public Release]