Source Term Estimation of Atmospheric Pollutants Using an Ensemble of HYSPLIT Concentration Simulations
Technical Report,02 Oct 2017,21 Mar 2019
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States
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In support of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty CTBT monitoring, this study works toward source term estimation STE of dispersive pollutants using a novel methodan ensemble of forward trajectory concentration simulations using a meteorology-coupled dispersion model. STE of a plume of atmospheric pollutants can be solved in a variety of ways, but little has been studied on the sensitivity between the horizontal resolution of the meteorology data in relation to the dispersion model and the results derived from known concentrations at multiple locations. This study tackles both these issues of resolution and observation sensitivities by employing the Hybrid Single Particle LagrangianIntegrated Trajectory HYSPLIT model, coupled with data from the 1983 Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment CAPTEX, to determine the location of the experimental tracer releases. Furthermore, the study then applies the SRM methodology to locate the detonation location of two nuclear tests conducted in the 1950s at the Nevada Test Site NTS. Knowing the sensitivity of the STE solution based on the number of available measurements is useful for determining the location of a release of radionuclides into the atmosphere in support of nuclear treaty monitoring.
- Air Pollution and Control