Analysis of Military Construction Cost Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States
Pagination or Media Count:
We conduct an exploratory analysis to study combining military construction MILCON data from the Selected Acquisition Reports SAR of Major Defense Acquisition Programs MDAP with the associated Automated Civil Engineer System project actual costs. The analysis uses both descriptive and inferential statistics to identify cost growth of MILCON at the programmatic level as well as to bridge the gap between SAR estimates and actual project costs within those program-level estimates. Overall, programs experience more negative growth cost savings in MILCON estimates on SARs, typically less than 0.2 percent of the total program cost implying minimal impact to program decisions. Estimates got more accurate from first to last SAR in comparison to total MILCON programmed for all projects within the program. However, the last SARs median MILCON cost estimate was approximately 31 million underestimated to projects currently authorized and appropriated for the MDAPs. This could accumulate and impact budgetary decisions of scarce fiscal resources. Several factors were identified as potential drivers to MILCON cost growth within MDAPs, but require more data points for regression modelling. Preliminary research was restricted to 32 programs, 10 with authorized projects accessible for comparison, but initial results suggest building on this exploratory analysis.
- Economics and Cost Analysis
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics