Accession Number:

AD1076880

Title:

Comparing Estimated to Actual Development Budgets for Air Force Space Programs

Descriptive Note:

[Technical Report, Master's Thesis]

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2019-03-22

Pagination or Media Count:

67

Abstract:

The accuracy of budget estimates is vital in ensuring cost efficiency and decreasing the possibility of budget and schedule growth. Space program budget growth does not increase at a constant rate between Milestone B MS B and Initial Operational Capability IOC. When an exponential curve was fit to the deviations in budget growth, the mean and median R2 for the programs in this study were .83 and .91, respectively. Many programs had negative annual budget growth in the first one or two fiscal years of their schedule, this even included large satellite programs with substantial budget growth later in their schedules. Much of the cumulative budget growth was also in the later fiscal years of the schedule between MS B and IOC. The mean and median of cumulative budget growth change at the 90 to 100 schedule mark are 25.30 and 22.51 than while they are only 7.12 and 0.96 at the 30 to 40 schedule mark. The original objective, to determine how close previous fiscal year budget estimates are to the actual budget, was also achieved. This accuracy has increased in recent years as well.

Subject Categories:

  • Administration and Management
  • Economics and Cost Analysis

Distribution Statement:

[A, Approved For Public Release]