An Analysis of Estimate Variance in Program Office Estimates
AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States
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Past research has shown that predicting the cost growth within DoD systems is an important topic. Total program cost growth and predictors of program cost growth have been studied. Kozlak et al. 2017 studied cost growth at four major reviews Critical Design Review, First Flight, Development Test and Evaluation End, and Initial Operating Capability. This research attempts to assess cost growth and cost variance at similar points in a program life cycle. In the past the majority of studies have been done identifying programs as either Acquisition Category ACAT I and non-ACAT I programs, or Major Defense Acquisition Programs MDAP and non-MDAP programs. This research has data that is able to highlight ACAT II and ACAT III programs. This research also attempts to create a CER for the relationship between Other Government Costs OGC-to-contract costs. The research is not attempting to definitively evaluate or confirm the effects of program characteristics, but is rather trying to guide the bolstering of POE databases and POE research. This database and POE research should highlight cost growth and cost variance for ACAT II and ACAT III programs. Such programs are not highlighted in Selected Acquisition Reports SAR or the current cost growth literature.
- Administration and Management
- Economics and Cost Analysis