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Quantification of Uncertainty in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models: Literature Review

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[Technical Report, Special Report]

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Probabilistic coastal hazard assessment is characterized by the relationship between storm hazards, such as storm surge, and corresponding annual exceedance probability. The probabilistic analysis of storm surge is an integral component of the flood hazard assessment of structures and facilities located near coastal areas. The Joint Probability Method JPM has become the standard probabilistic modeling approach for the assessment of coastal storm hazards in hurricane-prone areas in the United States. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to evaluate the components, technical considerations, and limitations of different implementations of the JPM, with emphasis on the methods adopted by U.S. government agencies, including the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The traditional treatment of uncertainty e.g., meteorological, hydrodynamic, and probabilistic modeling error in storm surge studies was found to be better documented than the quantification of epistemic uncertainty through the concurrent consideration of alternate data, methods, and models. This literature review is part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored study Quantification of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models.

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Fluid Mechanics
  • Meteorology

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[A, Approved For Public Release]