Accession Number:

AD1066700

Title:

Korea Strategic Outcomes

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report

Corporate Author:

George Mason University Fairfax United States

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2018-10-01

Pagination or Media Count:

19.0

Abstract:

The GMU Korean Peninsula strategic outcomes project sought viable political-military options to achieve U.S. strategic objectives with respect to the Korean Peninsula, and examined whether executing these options will introduce risk to other regional U.S. objectives. Timed Influence Net TIN models were used to identify potential sources of strategic risk for the United States, and to develop a framework for use by operational planning teams. The TIN model started with possible end-states and examined influence factors that could contribute or undermine attainment of the end-state of interestin this case Final, Fully Verified Denuclearization FFVD. The model explored possible intermediate states that would be likely to occur on a path towards FFVD denuclearization and also considered potential US and partner influence factors that could contribute to the intermediate and end-states. Experiments suggest that denuclearization, if achieved, will require many years to implement and the achievement of political, economic, and military accommodations that seem improbable today.

Subject Categories:

  • Government and Political Science
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE