SMA/CENTCOM Afghanistan Project Phase II Insights
ARMY TRAINING AND DOCTRINE COMMAND FORT EUSTIS VA FORT EUSTIS
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This paper provides the TRADOC G27 Models and Simulations Branch initial assessment for Phases I and II of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment SMA CENTCOM Afghanistan project. Phase I specifically assessed the impact of three different hypothetical Afghan government constructs Centralized, Enhanced Local Governance and Decentralized regional. Phase II focused on the potential outcomes of a negotiated settlement including truce, power-sharing Afghan government, and reconciliation. TRADOC G27 used the Athena Simulation to model the discrete futures listed above in order to assess the political and social outcomes of each future by measuring control, influence, support, security and the relationship between the population and GIRoA.2 This analysis was descriptive rather than prescriptive. Follow on efforts will use the results from the 19 November 2018 United States Institute for Peace workshop in order to further refine these potential futures.
- Government and Political Science
- Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics