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Can Egypt Lead The Arab World Again Assessing Opportunities and Challenges For U.S. Policy

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Technical Report

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U.S. Army War College Carlisle United States

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This monographs research, completed in August 2016, analyzes the potential for Egypt to resume an Arab leadership role that has been in abeyance for several years because of its turbulent domestic scene. The monograph also assesses whether or not such a role would be beneficial for U.S. policy. Although there has been a change in U.S. leadership since then, the situation in Egypt has remained the same. The monograph first explores why Egypt has long pursued a leadership role in its modern history and the benefitspolitical, economic, and strategicthat have accrued from it. Although, by the late era of the Hosni Mubarak presidency, Egypt was no longer playing such a role, and the subsequent years of the so-called Arab Spring and the turmoil that followed compelled Egypt to look inward, Egyptian officials have not given up hope that their country will once again take up the Arab leadership mantle. Egypts large population, geographical position, intellectual institutions and traditions, and diplomatic and military capabilities have convinced its officials and segments of the intelligentsia that it is only a matter of time until Egypt will bounce back from its current domestic challenges and seek regional leadership again. However, these challenges are formidable. Egypts government has pursued authoritarian policies that have restricted the avenues of dissent the economy is going through a major reform process that has resulted in austerity measures, which have led to price rises for food and fuel and terrorists have continued to be active in the Sinai Peninsula andto a lesser extentin mainland Egypt, curtailing tourism and foreign investment.

Subject Categories:

  • Government and Political Science

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