Accession Number:

AD1053965

Title:

Modeling an Economy's Dynamics and External Influences Through a System of Differential Equations

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report,01 Sep 2014,24 Mar 2016

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB United States

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2016-03-24

Pagination or Media Count:

131.0

Abstract:

This research provides a methodology to develop models for the greater understanding of the application of the economic instrument of national power through the factors that define the economic condition of a country. The major components of an economy are identified as GDP per capita, 10Y treasury bond yield, and a major stock market index. The components have interconnected dynamics along with external influences from the United Stated Federal Funds Rate and foreign direct investment. These connections are considered through a metamodel in the form of a system of differential equations which is solved as an inverse problem. The validity of the model is verified and the model is then used in making short term forecasts. What-if analysis of various policies is explored resulting in insight to policy changes. Through an increased understanding and awareness of the dynamics of the economic environment, a foundation for analysis is built to begin addressing the impacts of pecuniary warfare tactics.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE