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Dampening Effects Of Food Importation On Climate Change-Induced Conflict In Africa
[Technical Report, Master's Thesis]
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
Pagination or Media Count:
As the scientific community speaks in unison regarding mankinds role in climate change, the rhetoric over the potential security implications of a changing climate is much less coherent. This thesis investigates whether a countrys dependence on foreign food imports and food aid alters the relationship between deviations in normal rainfall patterns and conflict in Africa. The results of this study indicate that i deviations in both previous year and contemporaneous rainfall significantly impact cereal supplies with previous year rainfall exhibiting a stronger correlative effect ii countries that depend more heavily on cereal foods sourced from outside their borders display a lower risk of civil conflict during wetter than normal years and non-government-targeted social conflict during anomalously wet and dry years when compared to countries that produce the majority of their cereal supplies domestically and iii the risk of violent, nonviolent, and government-targeted social conflict is greater following significant fluctuations in rainfall for the those countries that grow the majority of their own cereal. These findings suggest that mitigation strategies focused on improving water management, developing more efficient and stable import practices, and diversifying a countrys food sourcing options may reduce the impact of climate changeinduced conflict.
[A, Approved For Public Release]