Characterization of Mesoscale Predictability
Technical Report,01 Feb 2011,31 Jan 2015
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTONOFFICE OF SPONSORED PROGRAMS SEATTLE United States
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One of the major efforts in the atmospheric sciences has been to develop and implement high-resolution forecast models and to improve their parameterization of unresolved physical processes. For the last three decades, the relatively pessimistic predictions of Lorenz 1969 about the predictability of small-scale i.e., mesoscale atmospheric features have been largely ignored as routine weather forecasts were conducted at increasingly fine scale. Recent research suggests there are nevertheless, significant limitations to the predictability of mesoscale atmospheric circulations. Our goal is to develop an understanding of the predictability of such circulations in state-of-the-art forecast models.