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Analysis Of Navy Hornet Squadron Mishap Costs With Regard To Previously Flown Flight Hours

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Technical Report

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Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States

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Naval aviation is inherently dangerous. Recently, budgetary pressures have reduced flight hours across naval aviation. The authors experience as a naval aviator has allowed him to see that mishaps occur more frequently in a squadron when flight hours are reduced. This thesis correlates FA-18 Hornet and Super Hornet squadron previously flown flight hours with mishap costs. It uses a macro level approach by evaluating how a squadrons previously flown flight hours affect mishap cost and the likelihood of a mishap. This thesis does not attempt to assign mishap causality this thesis describes only the relationship between mishap cost and previously flown flight hours.Analyzing 15 years worth of squadron monthly flight hours and mishaps shows that mishap cost is statistically correlated to the flight hours flown during the previous three and six months. A linear multivariate model was developed and used to analyze a dataset containing mishaps in the years 20012016. This analysis showed a reduction of 9,500 in mishap cost for every flight hour flown in the previous three months. Additionally, mishap rates were shown to increase during periods of low flight-hour operations. Cost per flight hour is approximately 10,000, making a mishap cost increase when a mishap occurs from a reduction in flight hours roughly equal to the cost per hour.

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  • Military Aircraft Operations

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