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A Technology Analysis to Support Acquisition of UAVs for Gulf Coalition Forces Operations

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Technical Report

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Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States

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This thesis examines the potential effect of unmanned aerial vehicles in the Decisive Storm operations. This analysis of UAV technology will assist Gulf Coalition Forces decision makers in their selection of the most suitable and cost-effective unmanned aerial vehicles to support detection operations. This study uses Map Aware Non-Uniform Automata, an agent-based simulation software platform, for the computational experiments. It models the operational area, system entities for the Gulf Coalition Forces, and the Houthi militias attempts to cross the Saudi-Yemini border. The software collects relevant data that can be translated into measures of mission effectiveness. Results from 10,400 simulation runs of Houthi efforts to infiltrate the operational area are analyzed using descriptive statistics, linear regression, and partition trees. These results, which include a significantly increased percentage of infiltrators being detected by Gulf Coalition Forces and improved time to detect them, support the use of UAVs in detection missions. Computer experimentations and analyses reveal the most significant capabilities the UAV should have to achieve operational goals. These significant capabilities fall within the U.S. Department of Defenses Group 3 UAV classification. Therefore, the Gulf Coalition Forces should consider procuringUAVs in that category to enhance detection in the operational area.

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