Accession Number:

AD1046187

Title:

Nowcasting Cloud Fields for U.S. Air Force Special Operations

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report

Corporate Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA MONTEREY United States

Personal Author(s):

• Zoufaly,Sean L.

Report Date:

2017-03-01

Pagination or Media Count:

111.0

Abstract:

Nowcasting is a trending subset of numerical weather prediction that aims to produce a highly accurate analysis of current conditions along with a short-term forecast. One of the greatest challenges to a nowcast system operating in data-sparse regions is that of accurately forecasting clouds. Clouds significantly impact a variety of operations, particularly intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. A prototype nowcast system is developed and tested on a case of summertime stratus clouds over the Monterey Bay in California. This system ingests high-resolution geostationary satellite data and mesoscale model fields to produce gridded 06-h forecasts of cloud reflectance and probability of cloud. A statistical post-processing technique is applied using Bayesian estimation to train the system from a set of past predictor variables and observed imagery. This approach demonstrates skill over a climatology-based approach and shows an ability to accurately forecast non-typical cloud patterns. It proves to be very computationally feasible for nowcasting. This study lays down the initial framework for a highly accurate nowcast system that can operate anywhere in the world to enable mission success while reducing costs.

Descriptors:

• WEATHER FORECASTING
• METEOROLOGY
• GEOSYNCHRONOUS SATELLITES
• BAYES THEOREM
• CLOUDS

Subject Categories:

• Meteorology
• Statistics and Probability
• Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE