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Future Tense: Lessons from the Best and Worst Cases in Afghanistan from Pakistan's Perspective

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Technical Report

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Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States

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Broadly, this thesis argues that success in Afghanistanfor Afghans and their neighbors alikeentails establishing state-building measures, supremacy of law and human rights, rapid economic growth, and strong Afghan National Security Forces who can encourage the Afghan public to accept the practices of stable democracy and good neighborly relations. To fix some of the myriad variables in Afghanistans likely state in 2026, which will mark the end of the transformation decade following the U.S. withdrawal in 2016, the proposed project installs three hypothetical scenarios The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. These scenarios do not predict the future in Afghanistan but rather shed light on the factors and variables that will shape the postwar period. Examining such scenarios may allow strategic planners to develop alternative measures for complex situations. Sustained political stability and the will to reform by the Afghan establishment, fortified by consistent international financial and military support for at least 10 to 15 or more years, would likely be the key to success in the Afghanistan end game. Otherwise, Afghanistan will slip back into a situation much like the one that emerged after the Soviet withdrawalextremism, war, and instability. The scenarios are developed by examining several factors the criticality of the Afghan issue throughout history Afghanistans indigenous facts and prospects PakAfghan cross-interests and policy dimensions Global War on Terror implications conflicting interests and regional and extra-regional politics.

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  • Government and Political Science

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