Decision Environment and Heuristics in Individual and Collective Hypothesis Generation
Technical Report,01 Mar 2015,31 Mar 2016
APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES INC ALEXANDRIA VA ALEXANDRIA United States
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In two experiments, time pressure, familiarity of the decision environment, onset of informative cues, and the level of certainty portrayed within the decision environment were manipulated while examining possible changes in hypotheses generated and confidence in those hypotheses in individual and collective conditions. Hypothesis generation was examined as a function of heuristic usage to better understand the possible effect of the manipulated factors on the production of situational assessments. In conditions with no time pressure, when the decision context was unfamiliar, and when Soldiers received only low-value information early in the scenario, Soldiers likely invoked a weighted-additive strategy or allowed maximal information to accumulate in scenarios before making a situational assessment. Soldiers working collectively demonstrated a faster generation of hypotheses when the decision environment was more familiar to them. Additionally, Soldiers working together were less likely to base their hypotheses on suboptimal information.
- Personnel Management and Labor Relations
- Military Forces and Organizations