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IRANIAN FOREIGN POLICY AFTER THE NUCLEAR DEAL
AIR WAR COLLEGE MAXWELL AFB United States
Pagination or Media Count:
The nuclear agreement between the P5 1 countries and Iran is a recognition by the international community to put Iran back as before the 1979 revolution. However, the infinite political complexities that are intertwined today in the whole Middle East will not disappear instantaneously with this nuclear agreement and the complexities of the political status in the region are adding to the difficulty in determining what Iran foreign policy would be after the nuclear deal. The paper will present an argument about the possible actions that Iran can take to advance its national security agenda. As well, it will consider under what conditions Iran might implement and follow those possible actions. The paper will not investigate the full range of Irans instruments of power in advancing its national security and it will, specifically, explore Irans possible actions in pure military incentives. The paper is divided into two main parts. The first part aims to explore the factors shaping Irans perception about the biggest threat affecting its national security. Factors such as Irans geography, ideology, history and culture will be explored and will show how these factors formed Irans skepticism about other powers. It will demonstrate that the Iranian will continue perceiving that their country is vulnerable to external aggression. The second part aims to give the actions that Iran can take to either maintain or advance its national security and at what condition these actions could be taken. It will show that, under status quo condition, Iran will continue its conventional and ballistic missile build up as well as it will work to maintain its sphere of influence in the region. Also, the paper will show that Iran can advance its nuclear capability if it loses its sphere of influence in the area without being integrated into the international community, or if an aggression directly threatens it.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE