Accession Number:

AD1036885

Title:

Bomber Deterrence Missions: Criteria To Evaluate Mission Effectiveness

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report

Corporate Author:

AIR WAR COLL MAXWELL AFB AL MAXWELL AFB United States

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

2016-02-16

Pagination or Media Count:

25.0

Abstract:

Richard Lebow, in an article he wrote called Conventional or Nuclear Deterrence Are the Lessons Transferable, reviewed a series of wars and crisis from 1898 to 1987. He concluded the major factor in determining the success of deterrence was not the size of the military or its capacity to fight. Instead, it was the degree to which the challenger felt driven to attack and a belief in the success of that attack.1 In order for deterrence to be successful, a defender must convince the aggressor not only will it be unsuccessful in its attack, but also the potential cost associated with its aggression far outweighs the chance it will succeed. Patrick Morgans immediate deterrence example is the most effective way to persuade the enemy into believing an attack will be unsuccessful. A review of two case studies, North Korea in 2013 and Russias aggression into Ukraine in 2014, reveals immediate deterrence is the most effective when six criteria are used. These include1 A punctuating event occurs, leading to a requirement to display deterrence.2 A specific defender the deterrer and aggressor can be identified.3 An established security connection exists with the defender and that connection has a defined security response towards aggression.4 A sufficient amount of force is used in the deterrence effort.5 The defender or the sum of the defender and its allies is militarily stronger than the aggressor.6 The greater the effort put forth to deter action, the more effective the deterrent.US Strategic Command USSTRATCOM should use these six criteria when planning for and the effectiveness of future bomber deterrence missions.

Subject Categories:

  • Bombers
  • Nuclear Warfare
  • Government and Political Science

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE