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Infection Casualty Estimation (ICE) Model: Predicting Sepsis in Nuclear Detonation Burn Patient Populations using Procalcitonin as a Biomarker

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Technical Report

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Applied Research Associates, Inc. Arlington United States

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Individuals exposed to nuclear weapon environments may be injured or killed from the primary blast wave, thermal pulse and ionizing radiation. Burn casualties surviving the initial blast wave are at an increased risk of developing infections that, ultimately, may result in sepsis. Sepsis, a life-threatening condition resulting from an uncontrolled systemic inflammatory response, is associated with high rates of mortality. Consequently, the risk of sepsis in burn casualties creates a significant burden on emergency departments and intensive care units ICUs to identify high-risk patients for early intervention and treatment. The Infection Casualty EstimationICE model predicts the risk of developing sepsis as a function of the percentage of total body surface area TBSA burned. This model was developed using clinical data of burn patients and measurements of procalcitonin PCT, a biomarker of sepsis. The model predicts PCT levels of burn patients as a function of TBSA, and compares these values to clinically derived benchmarks to predict the risk of sepsis. The ICE model can be used by medical planners to estimate expected medical burden in an IND scenario.

Subject Categories:

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Medicine and Medical Research
  • Biochemistry

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