Physics of Coupled CME and Flare Systems
Technical Report,01 Apr 2014,30 Sep 2016
AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB KIRTLAND AFB NM KIRTLAND AFB United States
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Geo-effective solar eruptions can be traced to coupled coronal mass ejection CME and flare in solar active regions. This proposal is aimed at understanding conditions in the solar atmosphere leading to solar eruptions that are geo-effective, and to develop models to understand these coupled eruptions. The component objectives for this task were i derive measureable physical properties and discernible structural circumstances in solar active regions that produce near-simultaneous large flares and coronal mass ejections CMEs, when compared to those regions or circumstances in those regions that produce only flares or CMEs, in isolation, and ii develop statistical models for identifying those signatures and physical attributes that possibly lead to eruption of combined flare-CME systems, as opposed to flares or CME in isolation. This work uses solar synoptic imaging and irradiance data from both ground and space-based observatories. The technical approach to this work was built on research done at AFRL and includes methods of image processing, numerical analysis, and model fitting such as active region identification, feature tracking, statistical analysis including regression analysis, principal components, machine learning and discriminant analysis, classification algorithms, and magnetic field modeling.