The US Navy's RELO ensemble prediction system and its performance in the Gulf of Mexico
Naval Research Laboratory Stennis Space Center United States
Pagination or Media Count:
The US Navys relocatable RELO ensemble prediction system is fully described and is examined in the Gulf of Mexico for 2010. After briefly describing the ensemble transfer ET method for the initial perturbation generation, we introduce a new time-deformation technique to generate the surface forcing perturbations from the atmospheric model fields. The extended forecast time EFT is introduced to quantify the advantages of the ensemble mean forecasts over a single deterministic forecast. The ensemble spread and its growth are investigated together with their relations with the ensemble forecast accuracy, reliability and skill.
- Fluid Mechanics
- Physical and Dynamic Oceanography