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Why "Should" Statisticians and Businessmen Maximize "Moral Expectation"

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Conference Paper

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COWLES COMMISSION Chicago United States

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The word should in the title of this paper has the same meaning as in the following sentences In building a house, why should one act on the assumption that the floor area of a room is the product and not the sum of its length and width If all A are B and all B are C, why should one avoid acting as if all C were A People may often act contrary to these precepts or norms but then we say that they do not act reasonably. To discuss a set of norms of reasonable behavior or possibly two or more such sets, each set being consistent internally but possibly inconsistent with other sets is a problem in logic, not in psychology. It is a normative, not a descriptive, problem. The phrase moral expectation stems from the early students of probability who applied probabilities in their study of reasonable behavior of players in games of chance.

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  • Statistics and Probability

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