Accession Number:

AD1026821

Title:

Analysis of Protection Measures for Naval Vessels Berthed at Harbor Against Terrorist Attacks

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report

Corporate Author:

Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States

Personal Author(s):

• Sikandar,Raja I.

Report Date:

2016-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

85.0

Abstract:

The defense of a naval ship berthed in a harbor is a complex task affected by many factors. These include the fishing vessel density close to the ship and the challenge of discriminating neutral vessels from threats. A naval vessel berthed at harbor is more susceptible to attack than a vessel in open seas. The chances of detecting and countering a terrorist boat vary widely depending on several factors, including early identification of the attack and weapons available. This research uses modeling in Map Aware Non-uniform Automata MANA to analyze the protection measures adopted by naval vessels against terrorist boats. Design of experiments is used to efficiently generate data, which is then replicated using high-performance computing, to address a wide range of possibilities and outcomes. The data generated is analyzed using a variety of techniques. The study concludes that lethality of Blue weapons is the most important factor in determining Blues ability to counter a Red suicide boat attack. Additionally, the tactic of firing a warning shot followed by disabling shots within the exclusion zone decreases Blues success probability. Finally, an exclusion zone of at least 60 meters that is enforced with a patrol boat is recommended.

Descriptors:

• naval vessels
• terrorists
• force protection
• agent based SIMULATIONS
• EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
• SHIP DEFENSE SYSTEMS
• harbors
• HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING
• scenarios
• explosives
• models
• REGRESSION ANALYSIS
• probability

Subject Categories:

• Operations Research
• Naval Surface Warfare

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE