Accession Number:

AD1026156

Title:

Peaceful Protest, Political Regimes, and the Social Media Challenge

Descriptive Note:

Technical Report

Corporate Author:

Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States

Personal Author(s):

• Childs,Geoffrey D.
• Fleming,Randolph II J.

Report Date:

2016-06-01

Pagination or Media Count:

69.0

Abstract:

Information and communication technologies ICT have transformed with the advent of the Internet and the diffusion of cellular-based communications. Previous research has examined the effects of horizontal ICT on collective violence, but the effects on non-violent expressions are not well understood. Using social conflict data from Africa and Latin America between 1990 and 2011, this study employs negative binomial regression models to explore the distinct effects of the spread of social media on peaceful protests within democratic, anocratic, and autocratic regimes. Multiple regression models find strong statistical evidence in support of a positive relationship between social media and peaceful protest in anocratic regimes. Autocratic and anocratic states will thus increasingly find themselves in a social media challengerepress horizontal ICT or embrace it and its effectsas their populations seek democratization.

Descriptors:

• regression analysis
• insurgency
• internet
• mass media
• mobile phones
• civil war
• social media
• political movements
• violence
• international organizations

Subject Categories:

• Sociology and Law

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE