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Understanding Democracy and Violence in Africa: An Analysis of the Data

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Technical Report

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US Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth United States

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This is a study of polity governance and internal political violence in Africa. The purpose is to understand how polity and violence interact with one another using quantitative analytical methods. The goal is to quantitatively define the nature of the relationship and possibly identify timeframes in which we may be able to predict certain levels of violent behavior. The actual findings yield little predictive power. The final analysis reveals support for previous findings about the nature of the relationship between these variables. Mature democracies have a higher probability of experiencing lower rates of violence as well as a more stable rate of violence. Whereas, countries with a weak government system, or going through a transition in government, are more likely to experience both fluctuations in rates of violence and increased rates of violence. In conclusion, this thesis is inconclusive. The findings support the primary research question that mature democracies actually do tend to be less violent.

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