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Uganda: Perfection of Post-Conflict Stability or Ticking Time Bomb

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Technical Report

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United States Air Force Academy Colorado Springs United States

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The situation in Northern Uganda has improved since the cessation of violence in 2006 but stability remains tenuous at best, and at the highest level, reconciliation efforts have failed to address underlying issues that contributed to the rise of the Lords Resistance Army LRA and its subsequent conflict. While the U.S. State Department is critical of crime rates and assesses the political and security environments as relatively stable, experts interviewed for this study, particularly those not affiliated with the U.S. government, stated the situation more starkly.1 In general, interviewees described the environment as an uneasy peace, ripe for future conflict, and with few of the underlying causes of conflict any less significant than they were 20 years ago. These findings have implications for U.S. policy decisions in Uganda and, more generally, the way policymakers think about stability in post-conflict environments.

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