The End of Hegemony: Technologies of a New Tripolar World
Air War College Maxwell AFB United States
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The era of US global hegemony is drawing to a close. Within the next quarter century, revolutionary technological developments and new military capabilities will fracture the geopolitical strategic landscape, propelling todays near peer states into a parity position with the US. A shift to an information-centric globe will see ongoing conflict over the control of information through the new global commons of space and cyberspace. Technological advances in these areas coupled with the deterrent value of nuclear weapons will reduce the effectiveness of US conventional forces, and US interests will be challenged on a global scale. A new reality of continuous conflict over information will emerge in space and cyberspace where it will not be possible for a single state to maintain dominance. Through a deliberate focus on information and space control technologies, China and Russia are positioned to gain strategic military parity with the United States, resulting in the emergence of a new tri-polar world.