Blockmodeling and the Estimation of Evolutionary Architectural Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs
U.S. Army Washington United States
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It is well-known that cost overruns in Major Defense Acquisition Programs MDAPs are endemic, and requirements volatility is at least partially to blame. In particular, when the desired capabilities of a system change during its life cycle, substantial reengineering can result, especially when a new subsystem must be incorporated into an existing architecture. Of course, the likelihood and specifics of such additions are rarely known ahead of time, and predicting integration costs is challenging. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm to address this issue. In particular, leveraging an integer programming implementation of the social network analysis technique blockmodeling, we optimally partition the subsystemsrepresented in Department of Defense Architecture Framework DoDAF models intoarchitectural positions. Using this abstracted structure, we subsequently grow the architecture according to its statistical properties, and we estimate this unforeseen cost of evolutionary architectural growth via the Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model COSYSMO. We illustrate this process with a real-world example, discuss limitations, and highlight areas forfuture research.