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Assessing Socioeconomic Impacts of Cascading Infrastructure Disruptions Using the Capability Approach

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Technical Report

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U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center Construction Engineering Research Lab (ERDC/CERL) Champaign,

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U.S. Army doctrine requires that commanders understand, visualize, and describe the infrastructure component of the Joint Operating Environment to accomplish the Armys missions of protecting, restoring, and developing infrastructure. The functionality of modern cities relies heavily on interdependent infrastructure systems such as those for water, power, and transportation. Disruptions often propagate within and across physical infrastructure networks and result in catastrophic consequences. The reaction of communities to disasters may further transfer and aggravate the burden and facilitate cascading secondary disruptions. Hence, a holistic analysis framework that integrates infrastructure interdependencies and community behaviors is needed to evaluate vulnerability to disruptions and to assess the impact of a disaster. The research for Human-Infrastructure System Assessment HISA for Military Operations adopts the Capability Approach CA to measure and predict the impact of potential infrastructural interdictions on the City of Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria. With the CA, 10 capabilities are identified to describe the well-being levels of Maiduguri. To quantify these 10 capabilities, 16 indicators were chosen to represent them. These indicator justifications provide the rationale for choosing the indicators for the corresponding capabilities and predictive modeling. Developing probabilistic predictive models of the indicators or their indices allows analysis of social well-being in relationship to cascading infrastructure failure.

Subject Categories:

  • Economics and Cost Analysis
  • Sociology and Law
  • Psychology
  • Operations Research

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