There Are No Facts About the Future: Musings On Requirement Stability, Cost Estimates, and Weather Forecasts
Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition Integration Washington United States
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Suppose two meteorologists make predictions about the weather for a particular Saturday. Mr. Gray says there is a 50 percent chance of rain, and Mr. Blue says there is a 25 percent chance of rain. On the Saturday in question, it does indeed rain. Which one was right the one who predicted a 50 percent chance of rain or the one who predicted half that percentage Were they both right Was Gray twice as right as Blue Can we say that one prediction was more reliable, more useful, or more accurate than the other I dont think we can.