The Fallacy of Quantifying Risk
DEFENSE ACQUISITION UNIV FT BELVOIR VA FT BELVOIR United States
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Nearly every article you see in industry and within the DoD literature on the topic of risk management demonstrates, advocates, or aggrandizes the attempt to quantify risk. One might think that if risk management was truly a science and uncertainty could be systematically quantified in some manner, then the maturity of the profession of project or program management, as measured by the number of projects or programs that meet cost, schedule, and performance goals, would increase over time. Alas, the profession is not able to make this claim.