Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government
Technical Report,01 Jun 2015,01 Mar 2016
Institute for Defense Analyses Alexandria United States
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This report examines the current and potential future use of technology forecasts in science and technology S and T decision-making to help the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity IARPA improve the development and implementation of S and T analytic capabilities. We found that tracking and summarization capabilities could help analysts sort, organize, and distill large amounts of information as well as keep abreast of new developments. Alert capabilities could flag analysts when an indicator passesa pre-determined threshold, notifying them to focus their investigation on a particular issue. Personnel interviewed noted, however,that any tool should be designed to aid rather than supplant the role of the analyst and should not be operated in a stand-alone fashion.