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Evaluation of the Navys Sea/Shore Flow Policy

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Technical Report

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CNA Analysis and Solutions Arlington United States

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CNA developed an independent Discrete-Event Simulation model to evaluate and assess the effect of alternative seashore flow policies. In this study, we compare the results of our model with those of the Navys SeaShore Flow Model. We studied several enlisted communities to understand the impact of increased sea tour lengthon sea manning. We observed improvements in average sea manning with longer seatours, but, in many cases, the improvement was not statistically significant.Our key insights in this study follow. A single policy should not be applied to all communities because they are very different. Therefore, increasing the length of seatours may not affect sea manning much for some communities. Navy manning is a result of complex interactions among factors, making variability inevitable. Policy improvement can lead to a more steady manning level, but the variability remains, even if the system is optimized. In building a Discrete-Event Simulation model, we discovered key factors that should be included in the Navys SeaShore Flow Model, such as initial assignment of sea versus shore, advancement, and short-term versus long-term impact of policy change.

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