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Missiles for Asia The Need for Operational Analysis of U.S. Theater Ballistic Missiles in the Pacific

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Technical Report

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RAND Arroyo Center Santa Monica United States

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The U.S. Department of State concluded in 2014 that Russia is in violation of its obligations under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces INF Treaty, raising doubts about the treatys durability and questions about how the United States should respond. At the moment, U.S. policy remains committed to the treatyand seeks to encourage Russia to return to compliance by eliminating prohibited systems. The process of attempting to revive the treaty could take several years. Russia could continue denying that it violated the treaty or simply refuse to comply with it, in which case U.S. policy would have to adjust. In the meantime, the U.S. Army can start a rigorous operational analysis of the potential military value that conventional land-based theater ballistic missiles TBMs could add to the U.S. portfolio of strike capabilities. In particular, the U.S. Army should analyze the potential military value of TBMs in the Pacific and whether they might plausibly help the U.S. offset Chinas military modernization.

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