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Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian Approach
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Palisades United States
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We use a Lagrangian trajectory model to track the dynamics of the multi-year and first year ice boundary, defined as the minimum ice edge in September. To this end, we 1 identify the source regions for sea ice that melts and sea ice that survives the summer melt season in each of the Arctic peripheral seas as well as 2 sea ice area export through Fram Strait, and net sea-ice divergenceconvergence in each of the Arctic peripheral seas for each year of satellite observations or modeled ice motion.
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE